Yeah, I know. It's almost mid-March, and we're still talking about 2025 -- at least when it comes to movie awards. Oscars will be handed out on Sunday evening. If you search for Oscar predictions online, you'll find no shortage of guess work, intuitive hunches, and analytical explanations for what’s likely to transpire.
I've always approached the prediction game with reservations, prompted this year in part by a lack of strong rooting interests on my part. Jessie Buckley seems a shoo-in for best actress, but I wouldn't be upset if Rose Byrne won for her performance in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.
I prefer Sinners to One Battle After Another, but either movie would make a decent best picture winner.
Sure, Sean Penn is the favorite in the best supporting actor category for playing a right-wing nut job in One Battle After Another, but if Stellan Skarsgard pulled off a major upset by winning in this category for his performance as a film director in Sentimental Value, my life -- and probably yours -- will remain unaffected.
Moreover, the awards season has become so long, so televised, and so covered by the press that by the time Oscar rolls around, I'm well past ready to move on.
Still, Oscar remains the big prize, so I'll offer predictions in some of the major categories.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another.
This one boils down to a two-picture race pitting One Battle After Another against Sinners, which received a major boost when Sinners’ star Michael B. Jordan won best actor at the Screen Actors Guild awards. Other professional groups have gone for One Battle.
Here's a stray thought. What if the two frontrunners wind up providing another movie with a window of possibility. In the old days, I'd have speculated that Hamnet --a more traditional choice for best picture -- might have emerged victorious. This year: Not likely.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another. I don't regard One Battle as Anderson's best movie; it’s not as good as Magnolia, There Will Be Blood, The Master, or Phantom Thread. But Anderson is a strong stylist, a sometime visionary, and a director with a clear, idiosyncratic sensibility that’s woven into all his work. He's had 14 nominations and has never won. He's a major director who’s past due.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another, an adaptation of Thomas Pynchon's 1990 novel, Vineland. Anderson updated the story but kept Pynchon's raucous spirit alive throughout his movie. There's no real competition in this category.
Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler for Sinners. Coogler brought sharp relevance to a genre mashup of a movie that employed an expansive cinema vocabulary but spoke in a distinctive voice.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan. Jordan played twins who moved back to their Mississippi hometown to start a juke joint. Magnetic in dual roles, Jordan likely will beat out Timothee Chalamet's uber-driven performance in Marty Supreme. Why? Because Marty Supreme isn't likely to receive big love in other categories.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet. There's simply no competition in the only category on which everyone seems to agree.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another. If not Penn, Delroy Lindo of Sinners might provide one of the evening's surprises.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan's supporting performance made the horror movie Weapons a hit. Even if you don't like horror, you'd have to acknowledge that an unrecognizable Madigan stole the movie. If not Madigan, keep an eye on Wunmi Mosaku, who played hoodoo healer Annie in a role that gave Sinners a soulful boost.
Some bonus picks: Best International Feature, Sentimental Value. Best Animated Feature, Kpop Demon Hunters. Best Documentary, The Perfect Neighbor. Best cinematography, One Battle After Another.
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