It's over! Let ordinary life commence

Yes, I watched.

And, yes, I thought it was a mostly lackluster show in which Ellen DeGeneres -- after a decent beginning -- went progressively downhill. Say this, though, DeGeneres seemed relaxed throughout, which is a relief from the usual straining for laughs that torments most Oscar hosts.

I tweeted during the show. Thankfully, the world only lost a few minutes of my wisdom when DeGeneres attempted to show that she too could tweet, and crippled Twitter in the bargain.

The pizza bit? OK, I get that the Oscar show is a bit of an ordeal. Stars can build powerful appetites carrying all that jewelry around, and it's never wise to pass up a chance to make fun of Harvey Weinstein. But very few jokes get better with repetition.

But wait, the pizza gag did have one abiding virtue. Tell me you haven't always wanted to see Brad Pitt handing out paper plates.

It definitely was weird watching Gravity collect award after award while 12 Years a Slave waited in the wings, ready to pounce on the big prize, best picture.

I noticed a definite decline in wit from fellow tweeters this year, and I, too, fell prey to what amounted to a mostly boring evening in which, for me, the most touching moment came from seeing James Gandolfini in the one place I never wanted to see him: Oscar's "In Memoriam" section.

Stupidity? There was some: Only Hollywood could assemble a montage dedicated to ordinary heroes that managed to put Lincoln, Muhammad Ali and Mel Gibson in the same segment. No further comment is necessary.

There seemed to be no purpose to a second hero montage, other than to demonstrate that Hollywood sometimes makes movies that lots of people actually see -- not always the case with the Oscar-nominated movies.

Here, to wrap up the endless awards season and with no gloating that my predictions were all on the money, a few of my favorite tweets:

-- It was great to see Steve McQueen jumping up and down with happiness after 12 Years a Slave won best picture. The hell with restraint.
-- Jared Leto, winner of the Oscar for best-supporting actor, gave a great acceptance speech, showing big-time improvement since his appearance at the Golden Globes.
-- American Hustle was one of my favorite movies of the year, and I was sorry that it didn't win a damn thing.
-- Matthew McConaughey's acceptance speech for best actor proved to me that if there's ever an Elmer Gantry remake, he's the man for the job.
-- If I ever win an award, I'm going to ask Darlene Love to accept it for me. She appeared with best documentary winner, 20 Feet From Stardom.

-- This was a strange year. It was difficult to find a movie on the best-picture list that didn't have some detractors. I've met folks who didn't like any of the frontrunners: Gravity, American Hustle and 12 Years a Slave.
-- Good to see Spike Jonze win best original screenplay for Her. What a concept. An original script that really was ...well... original.
-- I can't think of anything to say about Kim Novak that doesn't sound cruel.
-- Someone decided to put typewriters on the set when they handed out the awards for best screenplay. Bold imaginative touch, no?
-- Just to prove that Oscar knows how how spread the largess, even The Great Gatsby won two Oscars, best costumes and best production design.
-- Whenever I hear someone sing Over the Rainbow, I think of Margaret Hamilton and those terrifying flying monkeys. Yes, I'm sick that way.
-- Lupita Nyong'o -- winner of the award for best supporting actress -- should be en route to a long career. Let's see if Hollywood finds ways to make good on her promise.
-- Maybe it's just me, but I think there's a hidden meaning in the fact that Ellen DeGeneres put on a white tuxedo to introduce Brad Pitt. Don't think about it.
-- Congrats to the Starz Denver Film Festival for shining an early spotlight on The Great Beauty, winner of this year's best foreign-language film award.
-- Wouldn't it have been wonderful to see Kevin Spacey host the Oscars as Francis Underwood, the conniving character he plays in House of Cards? Could have taken snark to new heights.
-- The band mostly resisted playing people off the stage, but intruded on the recipients of the short film awards, the one group that truly needs a moment in the spotlight.
-- About midway through, I had an alarming thought. "Horror of horrors, the damn show is trying to be tasteful."
-- In introducing the best-picture montage that included Wolf of Wall Street, Harrison Ford said the movie was a cautionary tale. What was the warning? Don't get caught?
-- Jimmy Kimmel turned up in a pre-Oscar skit that made me wince.

If you watched the warm-up to Oscar and the show itself, you spent a long day journeying into what seemed an even longer night. You deserve an award for sticking with a show that proved entirely predictable to those who -- for whatever reasons -- pay attention during awards season.

So how do I finish this ramble and get to sleep? I'll offer this: I've seen worse Oscar shows, and -- optimist that you know me to be -- I hope one day to see better.

Notes from a forgettable Oscar night

Well, it's over. Oscar night proceeded pretty much as expected, which is not necessarily a good thing. In its 83rd year, Oscar came close to outdoing itself for sheer boredom and predictability. The whole show felt canned, and I'm glad to be done with it. The nominated actors and movies -- actually a strong and estimable group -- deserved better.

As hosts, James Franco and Anne Hathaway displayed little wit and even less facility for working the audience. Was Franco trying to act cool or was he just bored? You know something's amiss when one of the show's liveliest moments comes from a dead guy: The late Bob Hope, a former host, appeared in a black-and-white clip introduced by Billy Crystal.

After a couple of years, it doesn't seem as if the 10-picture format has added anything to the broadcast by way of suspense or increased interest, and Oscar's attempts to reel in younger viewers seemed a bust, unless, of course, young people are starved for tedium. I'm betting most younger viewers spent more time texting than watching the show.

The evening, of course, was capped by the widely predicted triumph of The King's Speech, a movie that restored middle-brow primacy to Oscar, and proved that English accents trump even all-mighty Facebook, which seems to have played a role in inciting revolutions, but couldn't push Social Network into the year's top spot.

Oh well, Hathaway changed clothes as many times as I was tempted to change channels, and I did learn one thing: I now know why people go to Oscar parties -- so they can drink their way through the torment.

Here are a few discombobulated notes I wrote to myself during the course of an evening devoted to glazed over eyes:

-- Colin Firth (The King's Speech) shows a bit of welcome wit in his acceptance speech for best actor, another of the evening's many non-surprises.

-- Natalie Portman (Black Swan) wins the best actress Oscar. Her victory also was totally expected, but Portman seemed poised and classy. Guess a Harvard education is worth something after all.

-- David Fincher (Social Network) is robbed by Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), who wins best director. To be fair, Hooper gave what might have been the night's best acceptance speech. He thanked his mom, who discovered the material on which The King's Speech was based. The moral, he said: Always listen to your mother. Good advice, unless your mother happens to be someone like the character supporting-actress nominee Jacki Weaver played in Animal Kingdom. And, hey, Portman's mother in Black Swan (played by Barbara Hershey) was no prize, either.

-- Celine Dion sings a dirge-like version of Smile while we review the list of those who died last year. Schmaltz for some gifted people who passed on.

-- Thank goodness the underexposed Oprah finally found a platform. She presented the Oscar for best documentary, which was won by Inside Job. Charles Ferguson, one of that film's co-directors, made a point of saying that three years after the financial meltdown, none of the responsible parties had yet been punished. Am I wrong or was that the first topical reference of the night? Where was Jon Stewart when we needed him?

-- Bad judgment, Mr. President. With a tip of the hat to Bill Maher, a new rule: Presidents shouldn't appear on the Oscar program unless it's to announce that they've made a terrible miscalculation and (guess what?) those dreaded budget cuts won't be necessary after all. Mr. Obama showed up in the intro to the best-song segment.

-- Alice in Wonderland wins best costume design. Aside from Helena Bonham Carter (as the Red Queen), the costumes were the best thing about the movie.

-- Everyone who wins for Inception makes sure to thank Christopher Nolan, who was snubbed for best director.

-- I look at my watch. It's 7:39 p.m., and wonder whether this is the dullest Oscar show yet?

-- The band tries hard to play Social Network's Aaron Sorkin (winner for best adapted screenplay) off the stage. I hate that. Let the guy have his freakin' moment.

-- Melissa Leo (The Fighter) wins for best supporting actress. She can act, but she sure as hell can't give an acceptance speech. She rambles and gets bleeped for using the F-word, an Oscar first and, if we're lucky, a last.

-- Franco and Hathaway (as hosts). Attractive and unimpressive. And, no, I never want to see Franco in drag again. He did a Marilyn Monroe bit.

And, finally, a few asides from the red carpet...

-- Tom Hanks, interviewed by red-carpet host Robin Roberts, always seems like a guy you'd like to know.

-- Justin Timberlake, interviewed on the red carpet, easily could have been nominated for best supporting actor for his work in The Social Network.

-- Ben Mankiewicz, a host on Turner Classic Movies, actually sounded intelligent on the red carpet. If you can sound smart in that setting, you are smart.

-- There should be a limit on how many times red carpet hosts are allowed to use the word "amazing."

-- Fantasy wish for the Oscars. Ricky Gervais shows up on the Fashion Skyway above the red carpet. You fill in the rest.

-- Has Oscar become like the Super Bowl? Coverage starts three hours before the Awards ceremony? Why am I watching? Come to think of it, I was asking myself the same question at the end of the show.

If you're looking for a complete list of winners, The Hollywood Reporter has one.

It definitely will be good to be 'The King'

Here's a bit of heresy from a film critic: I've never cared much about the Academy Awards. Over the span of a 30-year career writing about movies, I've rattled on about Oscar, but seldom with a major rooting interest.

Why is that, you ask?

Glad you brought it up. The Academy Awards basically are a way for Hollywood to assure the public that it's doing exceptional work. To which I (and you) should say, "We'll be the judges of that."

Besides, we've already had a slew of critics' association awards, the Golden Globes and the various guild awards (directors, writers, cinematographers, etc.). By the time Oscar rolls around, it can feel as if we're walking through an orchard where all the apples have been picked.

OK, so the biggest apples still hang from the tree, but you know what I'm saying: Amid so much TV coverage, journalism and end-of-the-year hype, Oscar can feel almost anti-climactic.

Nonetheless, critics face an annual ritual in which they dutifully predict the winners in major categories, so I'll oblige by following suit, mostly as a way of reminding you that the Oscar ceremonies are coming up this Sunday. And let me add one note about predictions: I sincerely hope I'm wrong in several categories; I'd rather be surprised than right as Hollywood plods through what sometimes feels like an interminable orgy of self-congratulation.

BEST PICTURE

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win: The Social Network

The King's Speech tells the story of how George VI overcame his stutter to give a speech that rallied a nation on the eve of World War II. Although Social Network started as the frontrunner and walked away with top honors from most critics' associations, it seems to have faded in favor of a more traditional choice.

The travails of a monarch and the man who helped him overcome his speech impediment probably will triumph over the entrepreneurial exploits of Mark Zuckerberg, one of the inventors of Facebook.

And why not? Shouldn't a story that amounts to little more than a footnote in history trump a picture about a phenomenon that has altered human behavior and may have provided a platform for upsetting power balances in North Africa and the Middle East?

I'm sure you can tell how I feel about it, but instead of a vote, my only recourse is facetiousness and a bit of sarcasm. I enjoyed The King's Speech. But best picture? Not in my world.

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech

Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

The other nominees in this category -- Javier Bardem , Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; and James Franco, 127 Hours - don't really stand a chance. Firth, nominated previously for his work in A Single Man, seems to have been leading this race from the outset, and won't likely relinquish the No. 1 spot.

There's no denying the power of Firth's achievement as the stammering King George. But consider what Eisenberg accomplished: He made an unlikeable character into someone we couldn't take our eyes off. In playing Mark Zuckerberg in The Social Network, Eisenberg created an indelible portrait of what happens when a nerd (and maybe the smartest guy in the room) winds up making billions.

And don't overlook Franco, either. He gave what amounted to a solo performance as Aron Ralston, a young man who amputated his own arm in order to survive entrapment in a Utah canyon.

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Should win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan

Portman will beat her competitors: Annette Bening , The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; and Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine.

Portman gave everything she had to play a disturbed ballerina in Darren Aronofsky's mesmerizing Black Swan. If Portman loses, it probably will be to Bening, who has plenty of old-pro cred. Bening played one half of a lesbian couple in The Kids Are All Right, a movie that - at least in my view - has been vastly overrated, but voters may be included to reward her for an impressive career.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Christian Bale, The Town

Should win: Jeremy Renner, The Town

I like all the nominees in this category, but Bale's performance as a meth-addicted former boxer from Lowell, Mass., will carry the day. It's the showiest performance in a strong field that includes: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Renner, The Town, Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right and Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.

John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) played a meth-dealing Ozark man who could be both scary and sympathetic. Many jaws will drop if Hawkes were to win, but I'm thinking that voters will consider his dark-horse nomination sufficient reward.

And, yes, Rush remains a distinct possibility, particular if The King's Speech has coattails.

Why do I cast my vote for Renner? The guy scared the daylights out of me as an unrepentant thug in The Town.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Should win: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Young actresses sometimes beat vets in this category. A Steinfeld victory supposedly became more likely when voters expressed displeasure over the fact that Melissa Leo of The Fighter reportedly campaigned for votes. Moreover, some observers think that Amy Adams and Leo, both nominated for the same movie, will split the voters.

Other nominees:; Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech and Weaver, Animal Kingdom.

I'd vote for Weaver who played the mother of a Melbourne crime family in Animal Kingdom. She gave a memorable performance, embodying equal amounts of motherly love and evil.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Should win: David Fincher, The Social Network

Hooper won the Director's Guild of America's top award, which almost always goes to the same director who winds up winning the Oscar. Hooper's competition: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, True Grit; and David O. Russell, The Fighter.

I don't know how the tide turned on The Social Network, but if Fincher loses, he'll have been robbed. He made what could have been a dry story fascinating, and his task was much more difficult than Hooper's; Hooper directed what sometimes feels like a play on film.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Should win: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network

Sorkin did a masterful job with a literate and entertaining script. He'll beat, Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy, 127 Hours; Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3; Joel & Ethan Coen, True Grit; and Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini, Winter's Bone.

But a word must be said about 127 Hours. Boyle and Beaufoy made something riveting out of a story about a guy stuck in a hole in the ground in the middle of nowhere. Quite an achievement.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: David Seidler, The King's Speech

Should win: Mike Leigh, Another Year

Inception was nominated for best picture, and lots of folks thought its director - Christopher Nolan - should have found his way onto the best-director's list. The Academy could use this category to make up for a snub, a possibility that became more likely after The Writers Guild of America gave Nolan its top honor. Still, it's even more likely that Seidler will be swept to victory as part of the rising King's Speech tide. Other nominees: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy and Eric Johnson, The Fighter; Lisa Cholodenko and Stuart Blumberg, The Kids Are All Right.

Another Year is the most adult movie in the bunch, but I don't think Leigh has much of a chance.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

Will win: Inside Job

Should win: Restrepo

The other nominees are Exit Through the Gift Shop; Gasland; and Waste Land.

I can't get past the fact that directors Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger risked life and limb to make Restrepo, a deeply moving and sometimes frightening look at soldiers fighting in Afghanistan; I'm thinking (maybe "hoping" is a better word) that the Academy will recognize the power and importance of their achievement, even though most prognosticators seem to favor Inside Job, a terrific look at the recent financial meltdown.

Odds and ends. Toy Story 3 will win best-animated feature. Incendies (from Canada) seems the best bet in the foreign-language film category.

Best song? Do you care? I can't say that I do. So I'm going to stop right here and invite you to make your own picks. But I need to amend something I said earlier: I do have a rooting interest. I root for Oscar to be over so we can get back to going to the movies instead of wondering who's going to bore us with an interminable list of people who must be thanked.

Put another way: I love watching movies. Award shows? Not so much.

Handicapping Oscar: My predictions

I look for Hurt Locker to blow up big on Oscar night.

Jeff Bridges should have no trouble taking home Oscar gold.

It pays to be bossy, if you're Sandra Bullock.

It's time for the fun game the whole family can play. We're talking about that international pastime and water cooler preoccupation known as Predict the Oscars. I try not to make too big a deal out of this annual exercise because the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences already makes a big enough deal out of the way it pats itself the back.

Besides, like just about everything else, Oscar has suffered from a bit of deflation. No matter how much the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences tries to hype Oscar, the program never will regain all of its luster. Why? For one thing, Oscar once provided a rare opportunity to observe movie stars in unscripted moments. In era of TMZ and a zillion other compulsive chroniclers of celebrity behavior, that possibility now seems old hat. The entertainment press has dragged the gods down off Olympus and, in many cases, the gods have been more than happy to participate in their fall – all in search of attention in an entertainment marketplace that's more crowded than a 19th century tenement.

To make matters worse, Oscar follows on the heels of a growing parade of previously televised award shows. It's still the big enchilada – the gold standard of awards – but by now its nominees have been seen on as many podiums as some hack Congressman up for re-election. I wish Oscar had shown its face prior to the Winter Olympics, not after. If the Academy had waited much longer, it could have given out the Oscars along with a generous helping of Easter eggs.

Award weariness aside, it falls to critics to predict the outcome of a race that has limited capacity to take our breath away – unless an obvious shocker jolts the proceedings, say, District 9 beating both The Hurt Locker and Avatar for best picture.

So here are my predictions in the major categories in a year in which I believe Oscar will spread its largess among a variety of pictures, most of them deserving. Tune in Sunday to see whether I'm in tune with Oscar or hopelessly out of touch.

BEST PICTURE
What will win: Hurt Locker
What should win: Hurt Locker
Upset possibility: The Blind Side

Commentary: A Blind Side victory could emerge as a result of vote splitting among Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker and Avatar, but I'm thinking that director Kathryn Bigelow's white-knuckle look at an Iraq bomb squad will impress voters because it brought audiences close to fighting men in a war that generally has remained distant to the public. Also, it happens to be the best of the 10 nominated pictures. Avatar wins if the Academy decides that popularity, impressive 3D and a major “wow” factor trump everything else, a distinct possibility, but I'm still predicting victory for Hurt Locker.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who will win: Kathryn Bigelow
Who should win Kathryn Bigelow
Upset possibility: James Cameron for presiding over the complicated technological process that brought Avatar to the screen for a piddling $500 million.

Commentary: The best thing about Oscar (aside from whatever fashion disasters loom) will be the Academy's recognition for Bigelow, a director who happens to be a woman, but who never underestimates the visceral kick that movies provide. She'd be the first woman to win best director. Oh well, it's only taken 81 previous tries for Oscar to get around to recognizing that there are two sexes, and both can operate behind the camera.

I'm betting that Cameron will not prevail because Bigelow already won the prestigious Directors Guild of America award as the year's best director. If you take a second look (or a first if you haven't seen it) at The Hurt Locker, you'll discover that it's gripping, vivid and bolstered by superior performances from the trio of actors who played members of the movie's three-man bomb squad.

BEST ACTOR
Who will win: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Who should win: Jeff Bridges
Upset possibility: The biggest possible upset would be Jeremy Renner, who played an adrenalin-junkie GI who disarmed bombs in The Hurt Locker.

Commentary: OK, Crazy Heart was a little overrated, but it presents an opportunity to recognize an actor for current efforts and for an impressive body of past work. Conventional wisdom has it that Bridges' talents have been somewhat overlooked by Hollywood. I'm not sure I buy that, but I have no problem with him taking home a statue that I originally thought would go to George Clooney for playing a downsizing specialist in Up in the Air.

The moral of this story: It never hurts to play a drunk, especially one who sings country/western.

BEST ACTRESS
Who will win: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Who should win: Carey Mulligan, An Education
If there's an upset: Meryl Streep.

Commentary: Bullock did a fine job in The Blind Side. Her portrayal of the single-minded Leigh Anne Tuohy captured audience hearts and allowed Bullock to dominate a movie about a woman who helped a young black man find his way into a successful football career. Still, the most subtle and revealing performance was given by Mulligan in An Education. She played a bright teen-ager who was seduced by an older man and managed to make it part of a 1960s rebellion against societal limitations on women.
It's a little weird to put Streep into the upset category, but Bullock seemed to have all the momentum going into the Oscar voting, and although Streep's portrayal of Julia Child -- the great popularizer of French cuisine -- in Julie & Julia was strong, she's already recognized as one of our best actresses. If the voters are feeling particularly frisky, they may just want to honor Gabourey Sidibe for playing the title role in Precious. I'm thinking that won't happen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who will win: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Who should win: Christoph Waltz
If there's an upset. Christopher Plummer.

Commentary: Waltz's performance as Col. Hans Landa in Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds was chilling for its cunning, calmness and eerie politeness. Waltz created one of the scariest screen Nazis ever. The only way he loses is if voters decide that Plummer's wonderfully generous portrayal of Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station and the actor's age – he's 80 – merit recognition. It could happen because like us, the voters have seen all the other awards shows and may just want to assert their independence.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who will win: Mo'Nique, Precious
Who should win: Mo'Nique
Upset possibility: Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart.

Commentary. It's possible that Mo'Nique, a comic by trade, is a one-trick pony when it comes to drama, but the self-justifying speech her character made in Precious was as riveting as anything I saw all year. Mo'Nique tapped into something scary, vulnerable and selfish; she made us understand the monster she was playing without condoning her cruelty.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Who should win: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
If there's an upset: There won't be one.

Commentary: I'm not one of the great fans of Inglourious Basterds, but I'll say this:. Tarantino writes some of the best scenes you'll find in contemporary movies. The opening scene of Inglourious Basterds couldn't have been better, and the movie had other scenes that were almost as good. I don't think Tarantino's brilliant scenes always add up to great movies, but if he wins, I'll be happy for him.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Who will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Who should win: The guys who wrote In the Loop
If there's an upset: Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire.

Commentary: I'm a big fan of In the Loop, a scorching satire about the way United States and Britain become involved in a war in the Persian Gulf. But Up in the Air, an adaptation of a Walter Kirn novel, is equally deserving. Reitman served up a mainstream entertainment that has something meaningful to say about the current economic chaos; Up in the Air secured Reitman's place as a director who knows how to entertain with wit and careful observation. I also admire the fact that Reitman refuses to waste his time (or ours) on fluff.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
What will win. Up
What should win: Fantastic Mr. Fox
If there's an upset: The Secret of the Kells.

Commentary: If The Secret of the Kells, which hasn't had much play in the United States yet, were to win, it would mark of the one greatest upsets in Oscar history. I thought Up, which began brilliantly, was a bit overrated, but that puts me in a distinct minority. I loved Fantastic Mr. Fox, Wes Anderson's extremely amusing adaptation of a Roald Dahl story; it was funny and boasted the best voice work of the year.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
What will win: The Cove
What should win: Don't have a rooting interest this year. If there's an upset: The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers.

Commentary: I see the possibility of an upset as extremely unlikely. The Cove was technically impressive and advocated for a good cause, halting the slaughter of dolphins in Japan.

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
What will win: The White Ribbon
What should win: A Prophet
If there's an upset look for the Israeli film Ajami to emerge victorious.

Commentary: Michael Haneke's White Ribbon, a look at life in a German village prior to World War I, was slow-moving, creepy and well-acted. It also had the distinctive flavor of an art movie, thanks in part to its stark, black-and-white imagery. The Prophet, about the torments and brutalities faced by an Arab prisoner in a French prison, has more visceral power and made a stronger impression on me. It's a powerhouse of a movie.

So have at it, folks. Your guesses will be as good as mine. And, to tell you the truth, I hope a lot of my predictions are wrong. That will mean that Oscar night proved far more exciting than expected. Meanwhile, I encourage you to delve deeply into categories that I've bypassed. It's time for your predictions, complaints and anything else that's on your minds. Good luck, especially if you're in a pool. These days, every nickel counts.